Electoral College Projections

Current Projection

State
Obama
McCain
Diff
Last Poll
How Old
Electoral Votes
Key:
Utah
27.7%
62.8%
-35.1%
Sep-11
436
5
Last Poll
The date the last poll for that state was conducted
Idaho
29.4%
64.4%
-35.0%
Sep-9
438
4
Strong McCain
States where McCain leads by 10% or more
Oklahoma
32.0%
63.8%
-31.8%
Sep-11
436
7
Weak McCain
States where McCain leads by 5% to 9.9%
Alaska
34.3%
58.0%
-23.7%
Sep-9
438
3
Too Close To Call
Stats where the margin between candidates is under 5%
Tennessee
35.4%
56.5%
-21.1%
Aug-20
458
11
Weak Obama
States where Obama leads by 5% to 9.9%
Wyoming
37.4%
58.4%
-21.0%
Sep-10
437
3
Strong Obama
States where Obama leads by 10% or more
Alabama
35.0%
54.8%
-19.8%
Sep-9
438
9
Election flipper state
Kansas
37.1%
56.3%
-19.2%
Aug-20
458
6
States with change in polling this week
Louisiana
37.7%
54.8%
-17.1%
Aug-17
461
9
Change in status this week
Kentucky
37.5%
54.5%
-17.0%
Aug-11
467
8
South Dakota
37.1%
53.7%
-16.6%
Sep-9
438
3
Current Electoral College Totals
Mississippi
38.4%
54.9%
-16.5%
Sep-10
437
6
Strong McCain
111
Nebraska
36.0%
52.0%
-16.0%
Jul-28
481
5
Weak McCain
78
Georgia
39.0%
53.7%
-14.7%
Sep-10
437
15
Total McCain
189
South Carolina
39.7%
50.6%
-10.9%
Jul-23
486
8
Arkansas
36.9%
47.4%
-10.5%
Jul-15
494
6
Strong Obama
133
Montana
42.4%
52.5%
-10.1%
Sep-8
439
3
Weak Obama
64
Texas
41.9%
51.8%
-9.9%
Aug-21
457
34
Total Obama
197
Arizona
36.3%
45.9%
-9.6%
Aug-16
462
10
North Dakota
41.6%
50.3%
-8.7%
Sep-8
439
3
Leaner McCain
76
North Carolina
42.2%
50.4%
-8.2%
Sep-10
437
15
Leaner Obama
76
Missouri
45.0%
50.2%
-5.2%
Sep-11
436
11
Exact Ties
0
West Virginia
39.0%
44.0%
-5.0%
Sep-8
439
5
Too Close To Call
152
Florida
44.0%
48.2%
-4.2%
Sep-14
433
27
Indiana
43.2%
47.2%
-4.0%
Aug-30
448
11
McCain w/ Leaners
265
Ohio
45.0%
47.3%
-2.3%
Sep-14
433
20
Obama w/ Leaners
273
Nevada
45.5%
46.7%
-1.2%
Sep-11
436
5
Tied
0
Virginia
47.6%
47.9%
-0.3%
Sep-14
433
13
Colorado
46.8%
45.9%
0.9%
Sep-14
433
9
Last Updated:
9/16/2008
Michigan
47.0%
44.7%
2.3%
Sep-10
437
17
Last Release:
9/16/2008
Pennsylvania
47.2%
44.9%
2.3%
Sep-14
433
21
New Mexico
48.5%
46.0%
2.5%
Sep-8
439
5
Wisconsin
45.9%
43.1%
2.8%
Sep-7
440
10
Minnesota
48.3%
44.4%
3.9%
Sep-12
435
10
New Hampshire
49.5%
45.0%
4.5%
Sep-9
438
4
New Jersey
48.4%
42.8%
5.6%
Sep-14
433
15
Washington
48.4%
42.6%
5.8%
Sep-10
437
11
Oregon
46.7%
39.7%
7.0%
Sep-9
438
7
New York
47.7%
39.8%
7.9%
Sep-10
437
31
California
51.2%
39.5%
11.7%
Aug-20
458
55
Delaware
55.0%
43.0%
12.0%
Sep-13
434
3
Iowa
52.5%
40.4%
12.1%
Sep-10
437
7
Massachusetts
50.7%
37.9%
12.8%
Aug-5
473
12
Maryland
52.2%
39.0%
13.2%
Sep-5
442
10
Maine
51.9%
37.9%
14.0%
Sep-10
437
4
Connecticut
53.3%
38.9%
14.4%
Jul-31
478
7
Illinois
54.7%
39.8%
14.9%
Aug-12
466
21
Rhode Island
51.2%
29.9%
21.3%
Aug-20
458
4
Vermont
60.6%
31.8%
28.8%
Feb-28
632
3
Hawaii
61.0%
31.0%
30.0%
Feb-29
631
4
DC
90.0%
9.0%
81.0%
Nov-2
1845
3
538

Weekly Totals

Date
Obama
McCain
Too Close To Call
Needed
Margin
June 10
202
206
130
270
-4
June 17
219
201
118
270
18
June 24
233
171
134
270
62
July 1
245
160
133
270
85
July 8
255
157
126
270
98
July 15
264
151
123
270
113
July 22
280
154
104
270
126
July 29
243
154
141
270
89
August 5
243
154
141
270
89
August 12
243
154
141
270
89
August 19
233
151
154
270
82
August 26
217
173
148
270
44
September 2
243
173
122
270
70
September 9
222
165
151
270
57
September 16
197
186
155
270
11
September 23
270
September 30
270
October 7
270
October 14
270
October 21
270
October 28
270
November 4
270

Weekly Total With Leaners

Date
Obama
McCain
Tied
Needed
Margin
June 10
272
266
0
270
6
June 17
272
266
0
270
6
June 24
289
249
0
270
40
July 1
317
221
0
270
96
July 8
320
218
0
270
102
July 15
309
226
3
270
83
July 22
301
234
3
270
67
July 29
294
244
0
270
50
August 5
314
224
0
270
90
August 12
314
224
0
270
90
August 19
299
239
0
270
60
August 26
292
246
0
270
46
September 2
297
241
0
270
56
September 9
284
254
0
270
30
September 16
281
257
0
270
24
September 23
273
265
0
270
8
September 30
270
October 7
270
October 14
270
October 21
270
October 28
270
November 4
270

Weak and Strong

Date
Strong Obama
Strong McCain
Weak Obama
Weak McCain
Too Close To Call
Needed
June 10
175
132
27
74
130
270
June 17
175
126
44
75
118
270
June 24
172
105
61
66
134
270
July 1
197
71
48
89
133
270
July 8
204
80
51
77
126
270
July 15
189
73
75
78
123
270
July 22
181
73
99
81
104
270
July 29
190
81
53
73
141
270
August 5
190
97
53
57
141
270
August 12
180
97
63
57
141
270
August 19
180
97
53
54
154
270
August 26
180
87
37
86
148
270
September 2
180
87
63
86
122
270
September 9
176
90
46
75
151
270
September 16
161
93
61
90
133
270
September 23
133
108
64
78
155
270
September 30
270
October 7
270
October 14
270
October 21
270
October 28
270
November 4
270

Old Projection

State
Obama
McCain
Diff
Last Poll
How Old
Last Poll Drops
Electoral Votes
Key:
Utah
No
31.0%
54.5%
-23.5%
Jun-23
516
N/A (2)
5
Pollster.com
A pollster.com average for the state exists
Alabama
Yes
34.2%
54.4%
-20.2%
Jun-30
509
N/A
9
Last Poll
The date the last poll for that state was released
Kentucky
Yes
33.0%
52.1%
-19.1%
Jun-27
512
N/A
8
(Pre June 10th, it was the last day the poll was conducted)
South Dakota
No
34.0%
51.0%
-17.0%
Apr-3
597
N/A
3
Last Poll Drops
If no pollster.com average is available, and more than two
Nebraska
No
36.0%
52.0%
-16.0%
Jun-25
514
N/A
5
polls have been released in the last month, what date
Louisiana
No
36.0%
52.0%
-16.0%
Jul-1
508
N/A
9
the oldest poll becomes more than a month old
Tennessee
No
36.0%
51.0%
-15.0%
Jun-26
513
N/A
11
(and thus will be dropped from the calculations)
Oklahoma
No
38.0%
52.0%
-14.0%
Jun-13
526
N/A
7
Strong McCain
States where McCain leads by 10% or more
Idaho
No
39.0%
52.0%
-13.0%
Feb-28
632
N/A
4
Weak McCain
States where McCain leads by 5% to 9.9%
Wyoming
No
40.0%
53.0%
-13.0%
May-14
556
N/A
3
Too Close To Call
Stats where the margin between candidates is under 5%
Arizona
Yes
33.5%
45.2%
-11.7%
Jun-26
513
N/A
10
Weak Obama
States where Obama leads by 5% to 9.9%
Kansas
Yes
37.9%
48.6%
-10.7%
Jul-10
499
N/A
6
Strong Obama
States where Obama leads by 10% or more
South Carolina
No
39.0%
48.0%
-9.0%
Jun-5
534
N/A
8
States with change in polling this week
Arkansas
No
39.0%
48.0%
-9.0%
Jun-16
523
N/A
6
Change in status this week
Texas
Yes
38.0%
46.7%
-8.7%
Jun-28
511
N/A
34
West Virginia
No
37.0%
45.0%
-8.0%
Jun-2
537
N/A
5
Current Electoral College Totals
Mississippi
No
44.0%
50.0%
-6.0%
Jun-26
513
N/A
6
Strong McCain
80
Georgia
Yes
43.7%
49.0%
-5.3%
Jul-3
506
N/A
15
Weak McCain
74
Nevada
Yes
41.8%
45.2%
-3.4%
Jun-20
519
N/A
5
Total McCain
154
Florida
Yes
42.9%
46.1%
-3.2%
Jul-2
507
N/A
27
Alaska
No
41.5%
44.5%
-3.0%
Jun-23
516
July 11
3
Strong Obama
204
North Carolina
Yes
41.1%
44.0%
-2.9%
Jul-1
508
N/A
15
Weak Obama
51
Missouri
Yes
43.1%
45.3%
-2.2%
Jul-9
500
N/A
11
Total Obama
255
North Dakota
No
43.0%
43.0%
0.0%
Jul-10
499
N/A
3
Indiana
Yes
48.0%
47.0%
1.0%
Jun-24
515
N/A
11
Leaner McCain
61
Virginia
Yes
46.5%
45.1%
1.4%
Jun-30
509
N/A
13
Leaner Obama
65
Ohio
Yes
46.1%
42.7%
3.4%
Jun-27
512
N/A
20
Exact Ties
3
Colorado
Yes
46.4%
42.8%
3.6%
Jun-26
513
N/A
9
Too Close To Call
129
New Mexico
Yes
47.3%
42.5%
4.8%
Jun-24
515
N/A
5
Iowa
Yes
45.8%
41.0%
4.8%
Jun-20
519
N/A
7
McCain w/ Leaners
215
Montana
No
48.0%
43.0%
5.0%
Jul-3
506
N/A
3
Obama w/ Leaners
320
Michigan
Yes
47.4%
40.9%
6.5%
Jun-26
513
N/A
17
Tied
3
Oregon
Yes
47.6%
40.5%
7.1%
Jun-23
516
N/A
7
Pennsylvania
Yes
48.0%
40.5%
7.5%
Jun-23
516
N/A
21
Last Updated:
7/10/2008
Delaware
No
50.0%
41.0%
9.0%
Feb-28
632
N/A
3
Last Release:
7/8/2008
Wisconsin
Yes
50.6%
40.4%
10.2%
Jun-26
513
N/A
10
New Jersey
Yes
47.2%
37.0%
10.2%
Jul-10
499
N/A
15
New Hampshire
Yes
50.0%
39.4%
10.6%
Jun-20
519
N/A
4
Illinois
No
50.0%
37.0%
13.0%
Jul-10
499
N/A
21
Minnesota
Yes
51.6%
38.5%
13.1%
Jun-26
513
N/A
10
Maryland
No
51.0%
37.0%
14.0%
Mar-1
630
N/A
10
Washington
Yes
52.6%
38.0%
14.6%
Jul-7
502
N/A
11
California
Yes
53.5%
37.9%
15.6%
Jun-25
514
N/A
55
New York
Yes
51.3%
35.2%
16.1%
Jul-1
508
N/A
31
Massachusetts
Yes
53.1%
34.7%
18.4%
Jul-1
508
N/A
12
Connecticut
Yes
55.1%
35.0%
20.1%
Jul-3
506
N/A
7
Maine
No
55.0%
33.0%
22.0%
Jun-18
521
N/A
4
Rhode Island
No
54.0%
28.0%
26.0%
Jul-7
502
July 28
4
Hawaii
No
61.0%
31.0%
30.0%
Feb-29
631
N/A
4
Vermont
No
63.0%
29.0%
34.0%
Feb-28
632
N/A
3
DC
No
90.0%
9.0%
81.0%
Nov-2
1845
N/A
3
538