|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
World
|
|
|
Curve Fitting
|
Crude Oil + NGL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ASPO
|
|
|
Bakhtiari
|
Koppelaar
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic-Based
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003
|
2005
|
|
All liquids, excluding refining gains
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stuart Staniford
|
|
|
|
Loglets
|
(in mbpd)
|
Link:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:
|
|
Year
|
Gb/Year
|
mbpd
|
Cum. Prod (Gb)
|
Low
|
Med (2250 Gb, K= 4.6%, 2007.4)
|
High
|
Double Logistic (URR=2665.5 Gb, K= 4.6%, 2013.5)
|
Loglet 1
|
Loglet 2
|
Loglet 3
|
Loglet 4
|
Loglet 5
|
Loglet 6
|
Loglet 7
|
Total
|
Newsletter 67
|
Newsletter 68
|
Newsletter 69
|
|
|
|
(1) BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006 (1965-2005)
|
|
1900
|
0.2
|
0.5479
|
0.2
|
1.3601
|
1.5146
|
1.8305
|
1.8144
|
0.0633
|
0
|
0.4817
|
0.0004
|
0.0184
|
0.1029
|
0
|
0.6667
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jean Lahèrrere (1900-1965)
|
|
1901
|
0.1674
|
0.4586
|
0.3674
|
1.4320
|
1.5903
|
1.9157
|
1.8986
|
0.0683
|
0
|
0.5109
|
0.0005
|
0.0195
|
0.1059
|
0
|
0.705
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1902
|
0.1818
|
0.4981
|
0.5492
|
1.5076
|
1.6698
|
2.0047
|
1.9867
|
0.0737
|
0
|
0.5418
|
0.0006
|
0.0206
|
0.1089
|
0
|
0.7456
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1903
|
0.1949
|
0.5340
|
0.7441
|
1.5872
|
1.7532
|
2.0978
|
2.0788
|
0.0795
|
0
|
0.5745
|
0.0007
|
0.0218
|
0.112
|
0
|
0.7885
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1904
|
0.218
|
0.5973
|
0.9621
|
1.6709
|
1.8407
|
2.1952
|
2.1751
|
0.0858
|
0
|
0.609
|
0.0008
|
0.0231
|
0.1152
|
0
|
0.8339
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1905
|
0.2151
|
0.5893
|
1.1772
|
1.7589
|
1.9325
|
2.297
|
2.2758
|
0.0926
|
0
|
0.6455
|
0.0009
|
0.0244
|
0.1185
|
0
|
0.8819
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1906
|
0.2133
|
0.5844
|
1.3905
|
1.8516
|
2.0289
|
2.4035
|
2.3811
|
0.0999
|
0
|
0.6841
|
0.0011
|
0.0258
|
0.1218
|
0
|
0.9327
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1907
|
0.2642
|
0.7238
|
1.6547
|
1.9491
|
2.13
|
2.5148
|
2.4913
|
0.1077
|
0
|
0.7248
|
0.0013
|
0.0273
|
0.1253
|
0
|
0.9864
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1908
|
0.2856
|
0.7825
|
1.9403
|
2.0516
|
2.236
|
2.6312
|
2.6064
|
0.1162
|
0
|
0.7678
|
0.0015
|
0.0289
|
0.1288
|
0
|
1.0433
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1909
|
0.2987
|
0.8184
|
2.239
|
2.1594
|
2.3473
|
2.7529
|
2.7268
|
0.1254
|
0
|
0.8132
|
0.0018
|
0.0306
|
0.1324
|
0
|
1.1034
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1910
|
0.3278
|
0.8981
|
2.5668
|
2.2728
|
2.4639
|
2.8801
|
2.8526
|
0.1352
|
0
|
0.8611
|
0.0021
|
0.0324
|
0.1361
|
0
|
1.1669
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1911
|
0.3444
|
0.9436
|
2.9112
|
2.3920
|
2.5863
|
3.0131
|
2.9841
|
0.1459
|
0
|
0.9115
|
0.0025
|
0.0343
|
0.1399
|
0
|
1.2341
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1912
|
0.3524
|
0.9655
|
3.2636
|
2.5174
|
2.7147
|
3.152
|
3.1216
|
0.1574
|
0
|
0.9646
|
0.003
|
0.0363
|
0.1438
|
0
|
1.305
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1913
|
0.3853
|
1.0556
|
3.6489
|
2.6493
|
2.8493
|
3.2973
|
3.2653
|
0.1698
|
0
|
1.0206
|
0.0036
|
0.0384
|
0.1477
|
0
|
1.38
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1914
|
0.4075
|
1.1164
|
4.0564
|
2.7879
|
2.9904
|
3.4491
|
3.4154
|
0.1831
|
0
|
1.0795
|
0.0042
|
0.0406
|
0.1518
|
0
|
1.4592
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1915
|
0.432
|
1.1836
|
4.4884
|
2.9335
|
3.1384
|
3.6077
|
3.5723
|
0.1976
|
0
|
1.1414
|
0.005
|
0.043
|
0.1559
|
0
|
1.5429
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1916
|
0.4575
|
1.2534
|
4.9459
|
3.0867
|
3.2935
|
3.7734
|
3.7363
|
0.2131
|
0
|
1.2065
|
0.0059
|
0.0454
|
0.1602
|
0
|
1.6312
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1917
|
0.5029
|
1.3778
|
5.4488
|
3.2476
|
3.4561
|
3.9466
|
3.9076
|
0.2299
|
0
|
1.2749
|
0.007
|
0.0481
|
0.1645
|
0
|
1.7244
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1918
|
0.5035
|
1.3795
|
5.9523
|
3.4167
|
3.6265
|
4.1275
|
4.0865
|
0.248
|
0
|
1.3467
|
0.0083
|
0.0509
|
0.169
|
0
|
1.8228
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1919
|
0.5559
|
1.5230
|
6.5082
|
3.5944
|
3.8051
|
4.3164
|
4.2734
|
0.2675
|
0
|
1.4219
|
0.0098
|
0.0538
|
0.1735
|
0
|
1.9266
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1920
|
0.6889
|
1.8874
|
7.1971
|
3.7811
|
3.9923
|
4.5137
|
4.4686
|
0.2886
|
0
|
1.5008
|
0.0116
|
0.0569
|
0.1782
|
0
|
2.036
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1921
|
0.766
|
2.0986
|
7.9631
|
3.9772
|
4.1884
|
4.7197
|
4.6725
|
0.3113
|
0
|
1.5833
|
0.0138
|
0.0602
|
0.1829
|
0
|
2.1515
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1922
|
0.8589
|
2.3532
|
8.822
|
4.1831
|
4.3939
|
4.9349
|
4.8854
|
0.3358
|
0
|
1.6696
|
0.0163
|
0.0637
|
0.1877
|
0
|
2.2731
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1923
|
1.0157
|
2.7827
|
9.8377
|
4.3993
|
4.6091
|
5.1595
|
5.1077
|
0.3622
|
0
|
1.7598
|
0.0193
|
0.0674
|
0.1927
|
0
|
2.4013
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1924
|
1.0143
|
2.7789
|
10.852
|
4.6264
|
4.8345
|
5.3939
|
5.3397
|
0.3907
|
0
|
1.8539
|
0.0228
|
0.0713
|
0.1977
|
0
|
2.5364
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1925
|
1.0679
|
2.9258
|
11.9199
|
4.8647
|
5.0705
|
5.6386
|
5.5819
|
0.4214
|
0
|
1.9521
|
0.027
|
0.0754
|
0.2029
|
0
|
2.6787
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1926
|
1.0968
|
3.0049
|
13.0167
|
5.1148
|
5.3176
|
5.894
|
5.8347
|
0.4545
|
0
|
2.0542
|
0.032
|
0.0797
|
0.2081
|
0
|
2.8286
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1927
|
1.263
|
3.4603
|
14.2797
|
5.3772
|
5.5763
|
6.1604
|
6.0985
|
0.4902
|
0
|
2.1605
|
0.0378
|
0.0843
|
0.2135
|
0
|
2.9864
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1928
|
1.325
|
3.6301
|
15.6047
|
5.6526
|
5.8471
|
6.4384
|
6.3737
|
0.5288
|
0.0001
|
2.2708
|
0.0448
|
0.0892
|
0.2189
|
0
|
3.1525
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1929
|
1.486
|
4.0712
|
17.0907
|
5.9414
|
6.1304
|
6.7283
|
6.6608
|
0.5703
|
0.0001
|
2.3853
|
0.053
|
0.0943
|
0.2245
|
0
|
3.3274
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1930
|
1.41
|
3.8630
|
18.5007
|
6.2442
|
6.4268
|
7.0306
|
6.9603
|
0.6151
|
0.0001
|
2.5038
|
0.0627
|
0.0997
|
0.2301
|
0
|
3.5116
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1931
|
1.373
|
3.7616
|
19.8737
|
6.5617
|
6.7368
|
7.3458
|
7.2726
|
0.6634
|
0.0001
|
2.6263
|
0.0742
|
0.1054
|
0.2359
|
0
|
3.7054
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1932
|
1.31
|
3.5890
|
21.1837
|
6.8945
|
7.0611
|
7.6744
|
7.5982
|
0.7155
|
0.0002
|
2.7527
|
0.0878
|
0.1114
|
0.2418
|
0.0001
|
3.9095
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1933
|
1.442
|
3.9507
|
22.6257
|
7.2432
|
7.4001
|
8.0169
|
7.9376
|